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  • kybernetikos · 4 days ago

    That's a disappointing chart from the economist. When you have a lot of points, you can't show them as dots that occlude other dots, or the reader can't get much more of a sense than 'none / some / lots'. What you need to do is bucket by region and do a background heatmap with small dots added, or use a different level of opacity on the dots.

    • IshKebab · 4 days ago

      There aren't that many points. It looks fine to me. (But I agree that is a common mistake.)

    • mrkeen · 4 days ago

      The internet of 2026.

      Betteridge's law wrapping a paywall wrapping an AI piece masquerading as domain-specific analysis.

      • lowbloodsugar · 4 days ago

        It’s always wrong when it really matters.

        • actionfromafar · 4 days ago

          You mean when it’s really Scottish?

          • thescriptkiddie · 4 days ago

            rare example of a question in the headline where the answer is yes

            • jimnotgym · 4 days ago

              Isn't that the nature of futurology. You are always wrong in some way. That doesn't necessarily make it useless

              • hgomersall · 4 days ago

                Given that many economic predictions are really about pushing an agenda, they are not at all useless, or at least, would be better measured against that criteria. I suspect the reason we still have neoliberal economics is precisely because despite its manifest failures of prediction, it still pushes the right agenda to be supported.

              • zipy124 · 4 days ago

                Wait isn't the answer No here? The dots are clearly clustered mostly in the correct half of the graph?

                • cman1444 · 19 hours ago

                  Shhhhh, it's way more fun to spout cynical and clever quips about a publication without backing it up with any reasoning.

              • atoav · 4 days ago

                "We investigated ourselves and found we did nothing wrong"

                • epolanski · 4 days ago

                  I really like the economist, they are quite centric in their views but don't hide a certain bias for strong representative democracies, deregulation, globalism and open (publicly traded) markets.

                  Their writing style is probably the cleanest in the industry and they always point out potential conflict of interest even though I've never seen the write anything really positive about the companies Exor controls (Stellantis, Philips, etc).

                  • hliyan · 4 days ago

                    The Economist Group is largely owned by the Agnelli family ("Italy's Kennedys"), Canadian billionaire Stephen Smith, the Rothschilds and others, which is likely a significant factor in those biases.

                    • amarcheschi · 4 days ago

                      I don't know why this is downvoted, in italy agnelli owned via Gedi group various newspapers and as you can imagine it's not ideal - although since this march group Gedi changed owner

                      • mejutoco · 4 days ago

                        One things I like is that when the economist talks about a business or an author, they mention if there is a conflict of interest (this and that works for this or is owned by that)

                        • epolanski · 3 days ago

                          The economist hasn't changed much their editorial views or leanings in a century.

                          • gms · 1 days ago

                            They've been around since before their current owners were born and espousing the same philosophies.

                          • pydry · 4 days ago

                            If you find a topic where reality lies outside of the overton window for western elites at the time theyll reliably get it wrong.

                            There are a number of examples of this (e.g. the Afghanistan and Iraq wars).

                            They usually use a lot of hedging language to cover their behinds when they make predictions, though, so their predictions are usually more nudges and winks than they are commitments.

                            • giacomoforte · 4 days ago

                              Nobody ever recognizes themselves as extremist.

                              • inigyou · 4 days ago

                                I'm pretty sure some people do. Luddites, for example.

                                • maleldil · 4 days ago

                                  Nah, even as a leftist, The Economist is mostly in the "enlightened centrist" area. I'd say they're a reliable source of facts as long as you know where their bias is.

                                • bluebarbet · 4 days ago

                                  Indeed. I unsubscribed (after many years) out of frustration at their incessant and unquestioning incantation of orthodox economic dogmas, in particular economic growth (which is at the very least a flawed indicator). This is what religion looks like. I was paying smart people to do some of my thinking for me, yet I couldn't help but conclude that my mind was more open than theirs.

                                  Still, the quality of The Economist's writing is in a league of its own. No denying that.

                                  • blackbear_ · 4 days ago

                                    Having similar thoughts at times. What are you reading nowadays?

                                    • bluebarbet · 3 days ago

                                      The Atlantic. Excellent writers, excellent editing. But as a European I find the US slant is a problem. I do miss The Economist's international coverage.

                                        • bluebarbet · 3 days ago

                                          To be fair, people have been writing scathing assessments of newspapers they don't like for centuries.

                                          • jrowen · 1 days ago

                                            After reading some of that article and the one from Current Affairs in the other comment, I decided I don't have much of a taste for that genre. They may have some decent points, but it's such toxic bickering.

                                        • timr · 1 days ago

                                          I guess if you’re so completely committed to left-wing ideology that you’re willing to overlook ridiculous factual inaccuracies, it’s…fine.

                                          https://www.currentaffairs.org/news/the-worst-magazine-in-am...

                                          I explicitly chose a criticism from someone with a wildly different political ideology than my own, just to show that this is not a partisan take. I disagree with almost every opinion expressed in that link, yet agree completely with the validity of the examples given. The Atlantic routinely makes statements contrary to fact, and seemingly has no qualms about lying or exaggerating to make an attention-grabbing point. It’s coverage during Covid was particularly atrocious.

                                    • billfor · 1 days ago

                                      They are not "quite centric" politically, unless you are a liberal. Contrast the number of times the phrase "far-right" appears with the equivalent (far-left, progressive, radical left, etc..). They go out of their way to use negative adjectives describing right-wing (US definition) people or concepts, but not so much the left. The "Lexington" column is completely devoted to liberal (not classical liberal) ideas, and I would challenge anyone to note a right of center view (US definition) in that column over the last ten years. I've subscribed to the Economist on and off for twenty years and definitely noticed a change in bias when Zany took over.

                                      • adamwk · 1 days ago

                                        The Economist is a British journal, so why would you use US definition of right wing to evaluate their centrality?

                                        • kensai · 1 days ago

                                          Valid comment, but prolly because this is the reality he knows. Which is fair.

                                          • billfor · 1 days ago

                                            We do read the Economist in the US, and Lexington in particular in the US section. I use the US definition of right wing because I'm in the US and didn't want to confuse Europeans that have a different definition of what "right" is when I use it in a sentence. All I was doing is correcting (and providing evidence for) the reference that they are "quite centric". They are not anywhere near the center of issues consistently. If you want more evidence, Allsides also rate it left of center, https://www.allsides.com/news-source/economist-media-bias

                                            I notice it because I've been reading it for 20+ years. In the last 10 years it has taken a notable turn to the left. Whatever your viewpoint, the "tone" and "lean" of the magazine has shifted in the last decade. It's still a good source of information and I do read it every week.

                                        • jrmg · 1 days ago

                                          I love that the top two (currently) replies to this claim that the Economist is ‘centric’ are one that’s arguing that it’s obviously too left wing for that label, and another arguing that it’s obviously too right-wing.

                                        • testdelacc1 · 4 days ago

                                          I don’t see any other publication doing this kind of analysis of themselves, pointing out the mistakes they’ve made in the past.

                                          Even in this article they mention “The Economist was convinced by the false claim that Saddam Hussein was hiding weapons of mass destruction”, something they remind the reader of each time the Iraq War is discussed. I remember an article from 2017 that said the Economist got it wrong, while a less honest publication wouldn’t have.

                                          It’s more remarkable considering that the economist’s articles and opinions are published without the authors details. So when an article gets it wrong, it reflects poorly on the economist as a whole. They can’t simply blame the previous guy, it’s their fault.

                                          They’ll be talking about how they got the Iraq War wrong as long as someone mentions it even in passing 50 years from now. That’s candour I appreciate.

                                          • hliyan · 4 days ago

                                            This is a very charitable reading of why The Economist does not have bylines.

                                            • SpecialistK · 4 days ago

                                              It is, and I'm aware of the less charitable (perhaps more likely) readings. But much of the time it isn't difficult to know who to attribute because they are explicitly featured in podcasts about the respective article.

                                              • testdelacc1 · 4 days ago

                                                You’ve misread what I wrote. I wasn’t explaining why there are no bylines. I was saying that when there are no bylines, any mistake reflects poorly on the newspaper as a whole. It wasn’t Shashank Joshi who got it wrong, it was the Economist.

                                            • mcintyre1994 · 4 days ago

                                              > We asked it [GPT-5.5] to assess whether each leader had made a falsifiable claim about the future as part of its main thesis. About 1,400 did. We then extracted those predictions, and asked the AI to mark out of ten both how contrarian the leader’s outlook was at the time and how accurate the prediction turned out to be. We ran those queries several times and took an average.

                                              I understand why it wouldn’t be feasible for a human to do this, but I’m quite sceptical about an AI assessing how accurate predictions turned out to be/how contrarian they were at the time. It seems like that would depend a lot on what sources it chooses, be liable to hallucination or getting poisoned by bad sources, etc. They don’t mention whether they used independent queries for each prediction either, or whether it was doing multiple sequentially.

                                              Given that LLMs can’t really distinguish prompt from instructions etc, I’m sceptical that they can reason particularly well about things like how contrarian a view was at a particular point in time.

                                              • platelminto · 4 days ago

                                                I thought the same while reading this - I can easily imagine the AI using hindsight to affect "how contrarian the leader's outlook was at the time", in a way that's similar to how we often do the same.

                                                Would be interesting to do a similar analysis but maybe pushing the AI to search the web for articles/other reporting written during that time, to at least correct for that bias a little bit.

                                                • memoriyato3 · 4 days ago

                                                  you can still judge if it was correct or not, irrespective of contrarianness, still a good signal to measure

                                                  • throwaway27448 · 4 days ago

                                                    It can give a judgement, correct or not.

                                                  • tgv · 4 days ago

                                                    > We ran those queries several times and took an average.

                                                    The whole thing is bizarre. They could at least have drawn 100 samples and evaluated the model's response. But no, they ran it a few times and hoped that the slight randomness in sampling magically resulted in a balanced assessment of accuracy and contrariness, at some point in time for which we don't even know how much training data there was, nor if that data accurately reflects the opinions of that time. But hey, we've got a graph, so it must be true.

                                                    How can people be so stupid?

                                                    > cheap bioethanol ... [has] yet to bring about the breakthroughs we prophesied.

                                                    Oh.

                                                    • znpy · 3 days ago

                                                      > I understand why it wouldn’t be feasible for a human to do this, but I’m quite sceptical about an AI assessing how accurate predictions turned out to be/how contrarian they were at the time.

                                                      Quite the contrary actually. The economist has a fairly consistent editing style that gets enforced, so its writing style is very linear and very consistent, fairly easy to “understand” for and advanced llm like GPT-5.5

                                                      • flashman · 1 days ago

                                                        You assert that, but can you prove it? Likewise I can say that the model is biased towards rating the Economist's claims as 'mainstream' and 'bang on' because as a high-profile publication those claims are repeated elsewhere and hence up-weighted.

                                                        I could be wrong - my point is, how would we know?

                                                        • znpy · 20 hours ago

                                                          https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26700664

                                                          > The reason why the Economist articles all read the same is that they go through a process called "subbing" or sub-editing by the same small group of editors who own the Economist's "voice".

                                                          > I interned at the Economist one summer in college and wrote two articles for it - the published articles bore a small relationship to what I had submitted. The sub-editors seemed to be mostly George Smiley-type Oxford and Cambridge PhD's of a certain age with an eclectic range of expertises, as far as I recall.

                                                    • t43562 · 4 days ago

                                                      One should do this analysis for various politicians, political parties, TV and news media and so on.

                                                      How do we know how good or bad the Economist is if we have no other source to compare against? Presumably it isn't trivial to predict the outcome of millions of people's reactions to all the complicated things that are happening to them.

                                                      • memoriyato3 · 4 days ago

                                                        psychohistory, some are already doing it today (LLMs simulating various people with various beliefs interacting)

                                                        • expedition32 · 4 days ago

                                                          Economists actually don't do that. They only use math. It's why they always get it wrong- they ignore the social sciences.

                                                          • OJFord · 4 days ago

                                                            That's not true at all, first of all economics is a social science, secondly I think what you think is ignored is the whole branch of behavioural economics.

                                                        • memoriyato3 · 4 days ago

                                                          to quote Taleb: those who can, do (trade). those who can't, write about it (financial press)

                                                          • giacomoforte · 4 days ago

                                                            I like to say, traders and people you put money on the line are often far more honest about economic policy, than economic influencers like The Economist.

                                                            • stackghost · 1 days ago

                                                              Traders have no more special insight into economic policies than anyone else. The economy != the market.

                                                            • JumpCrisscross · 4 days ago

                                                              Taleb is literally mostly an influencer who once traded (and sucked at it).

                                                              • dreambuffer · 1 days ago

                                                                Taleb made a lot of money trading, his firm failed but running a successful business is not trivial and his ideas ended up working when he took up an advisory role rather than an executive role. Unlike other financial "influencers", he actually seems to understand mathematics to a high degree.

                                                                Hardly your typical economist op ed writer.

                                                                • rfrey · 1 days ago

                                                                  He made money when he was working for other people. He did not make money when he tried to trade off his ideas. That was 25 years ago, since then he just broadcasts his ideas.

                                                                  No skin in the game, as it were.

                                                                  • dreambuffer · 1 days ago

                                                                    You don't have to be self-employed to have skin in the game, that's ridiculous.

                                                                    How many op ed writers have tried to have skin in the game at all? How many of them produce writing which is actually high quality and not just concern trolling about China or what have you?

                                                              • andyjohnson0 · 4 days ago

                                                                The quote originated with George Bernard Shaw back in 1903, not Nassim Taleb. And it has always been a lazy take. Some people just prefer to write (or teach).

                                                              • WithinReason · 4 days ago

                                                                They should have checked if they are more accurate than the consensus, the data doesn't show this.

                                                                • TheOtherHobbes · 4 days ago

                                                                  They are the consensus. Making up stories to support the consensus is their job.

                                                                  Of course they're reliably wrong. The stories are immoral by default and often objectively insane. But the Serious People either believe them, or put a lot of money and effort into making sure politicians and the media repeat them.

                                                                  The public don't set policy and don't read The Economist, so they're handed their beliefs by other means.

                                                                • roenxi · 4 days ago

                                                                  The major crime of media is misframing as opposed to being wrong.

                                                                  > The Economist was convinced by the false claim that Saddam Hussein was hiding weapons of mass destruction

                                                                  The issue here is not whether or not the Iraqis had any weapons of any type, the issue is whether the US has a basic right to travel to the opposite side of the globe and invade random countries. One of the issues the anti-Trump crowd has right now coming down on his crazy and unprovoked attacks on Iran has been that it is absolutely an established pattern of US behaviour and he's well within normal practice. Trump is even claiming it is because of WMDs! Again! Eventually at least, after he tried a few other excuses first. "He's lying" doesn't cut much ice because that is pretty normal when the US goes to war and it usually isn't particularly subtle. The only difference from the Economist's perspective is how enthusiastically the reporters want to pretend they believe the obvious mistruths.

                                                                  Anyway, that rant aside, the issue is more that the Economist is pretending that the unknowable is knowable rather than that they get it wrong more often or not than anyone else. It doesn't seem theoretically possible to predict the price of things more than "up", "down" and "assume it does what it always does". Mapping out the supply/demand curve and confidently forecasting how it could shift in the short term requires knowledge of all actors, their preferences, options and operational constraints. Even for a relatively superficial forecast. Who's got that sort of modelling firepower?

                                                                  • delis-thumbs-7e · 4 days ago

                                                                    I’ve noticed The Economist having odd ways of interpreting statistics and data, and this article makes me even less trustful.

                                                                    • gumby · 3 days ago

                                                                      Odd how? I’ve been a reader since 1985 and am satisfied.

                                                                      • delis-thumbs-7e · 3 days ago

                                                                        They had some months ago an article about affordability crisis in US and a lot of statistics how it is not a thing. Seemed very convincingl but then when you looked at the numbers more closely, they didn’t seem to give att all as strong support to their claims as they. I can’t remember details anymore, but I would wager it came down to the fact that US has insane amounts of wealth, but a lot of Americans are not very well off, and healthcare, debts etc. weights down pn even the middle class. To my memory none of this was in the article, which seemed a blatant omission to the point of making the whole thing more a piece of propaganda.

                                                                        I somehow expected them to have statisticians and data journalist working for them, but perhaps my assumption was just silly. This article seems to point that they do not, because as pointed elsewhere, this sort pf LLM-heavy approach is far from trustworthy.

                                                                    • ZeroGravitas · 4 days ago

                                                                      What a slimy headline.

                                                                      You can imagine some narcissistic abuser saying the same thing.

                                                                      Maybe "not always wrong" isn't the bar you should be shooting for.

                                                                      • andyjohnson0 · 4 days ago

                                                                        Disappointingly this is merely about the accuracy or otherwise of The Economist's predictions, not the rightness or otherwise of their world-view.

                                                                        • NordStreamYacht · 4 days ago

                                                                          > By contrast, when we suggested in April that oil prices were likely to rise further, we were out on a limb. Alas, we were dead wrong.

                                                                          Why "alas?" They wanted an economic collapse?

                                                                          • fnordian · 4 days ago

                                                                            Maybe the Economist wanted to provide good analysis for their readers and they feel sorry that they failed.

                                                                            • fragmede · 3 days ago

                                                                              They're capitalists before they're economists. If you predict the future correctly, you can make money. If you predict it incorrectly, you lose money. Alas.

                                                                            • SanjayMehta · 4 days ago

                                                                              Most of the time, especially when it comes to China. Every front page article on China has been wrong for at least the last decade.

                                                                              • spwa4 · 3 days ago

                                                                                Lol @ the use of "bête noire", which is of course a way to avoid the old racist saying of you made a hugely and catastrophic mistake ... saying you were black-faced. But surely in French, it's fine, right?

                                                                                • IAmBroom · 2 days ago

                                                                                  That is not what the translation means.

                                                                                • loughnane · 3 days ago

                                                                                  Long-time economist subscriber here. This feels too much like a "look what the AI said" sort of article for my tastes.

                                                                                  That said, though The Economist clearly has flaws I have yet to find something better. A weekly, sober, well-written newspaper is a hard thing to find.

                                                                                  • yieldcrv · 1 days ago

                                                                                    LLM’s are not good at confidence scores, even 5.5 and Fable make them up on the spot

                                                                                    they are good at schemas that contain specific criteria, a list of objectives that apply to the whole dataset

                                                                                    that then can be reduced to a fraction, 1/10, 8/10, 9/10

                                                                                    they didnt do that here so run the query again when your rate limit is lifted