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  • babelfish · 14 days ago

    > up from the company’s last private valuation of $730 million

    typo

    • 4k0hz · 14 days ago

      For now.. ;)

    • cdrnsf · 14 days ago

      > The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges.

      SpaceX's stock volatile? It's a shame nobody saw that coming.

      • echelon · 14 days ago

        Is it still being prematurely included in the major index funds?

        • winfredJa · 14 days ago

          yes, in few weeks.unfortunately the stock will be back from this slump

          • androiddrew · 14 days ago

            Ummm probably not. Lock ups are going to dump far more stock into the market.

            • kurthr · 14 days ago

              But they are going to coincide lockups with the release of additional stock float from 5% up to 20% of the total "valuation" with a 3x QQQ multiplier so that stock indexes will treat them as 60% float even though 2/3rds of those shares are unavailable. Thus they guarantee that even more shares must be bought by tracking ETFs and institutional buyers. Everybody (that already owns pre-IPO shares) wins!

              • kirubakaran · 14 days ago

                But that's not a secret, and therefore already priced in, right?

                • JumpCrisscross · 14 days ago

                  It's also a tiny effect given the total-market funds buy small amounts of each company, and the NASDAQ 100 isn't particularly big.

                  If S&P had changed its rules for the S&P 500, there would have been an effect. In the end, the drama was almost entirely a spectacle for finance influencers and their viewers.

                  • kurthr · 13 days ago

                    QQQ is the largest of the Nasdaq100 tracking funds. It's only about 1%, increasing to 4% of the QQQ, which is ~$350B in size. So it's only $3.5B of forced buying or a little less that 5% (of $75B). For the second float would be and additional ~$14B, again about 5%.

          • opinion-is-bad · 14 days ago

            Only the Nasdaq, which is an intentionally aggressive index. The S&P rejected all proposals.

          • HerbManic · 14 days ago

            Launched in the same way they launch Starship, full of ambition, promising a bit too much, but might explode at any moment. Either way it will be a spectacular show regardless of what happen.

            • scottyah · 14 days ago

              Yes, it's actually the first volatile high-profile IPO so you can see why some people need to be reminded of the possibility.

              • tough · 13 days ago

                I didn't partake but from elon's shenanigans with bitcoin and doge (the coin, not the govt thing) it seemed clear he'd do similar with the stock

                is tesla stock not volatile too? elon stock's are more like today's crypto than a 20th's century company stock w dividends

                • scottyah · 12 days ago

                  People have trouble pricing it because they do actual new engineering and don't spend time and money making the stock price wherever they want it. All the other F500s are owned by the same few companies and all the board members are the same.

                  Wall Street has never understood engineering. Eventually Tesla will pull a Boeing, GE, Ford, etc- lose the founder of founder's influence, get taken over by suits, and slowly die but hang on by playing the financial games.

                  • cma · 11 days ago

                    > and slowly die but hang on by playing the financial games.

                    There have been plenty of those, like SpaceX buying Solar City bonds then when they were going to go bad he used Tesla to bail them out.

                    • scottyah · 10 days ago

                      There's definitely been a lot of "creativity" in Musk's companies. I'm honestly a bit surprised that any could go public. I thought there'd be too many skeletons in the closet, but glad things worked out/weren't that bad.

              • JumpCrisscross · 14 days ago

                > shame nobody saw that coming

                Seeing something coming is very different from having it not only confirmed but also quantified.

                • tim333 · 14 days ago

                  It's actually remained about 14% or more above the IPO price which is roughly what you'd want but gone up and down a bit.

                  It's funny with stock prices - they all go up and down a bit in kind of random ways but people project all sorts of stories onto them that often don't relate much to reality.

                  • roxolotl · 14 days ago

                    It peaked at around +60% from IPO price and swung daily around 10-15%. It’s possible it’s starting to stabilize but that first week was basically the definition of volatile.

                    • ambicapter · 13 days ago

                      Just googling the ticker shows it at 149, which is below its opening.

                      • lelanthran · 13 days ago

                        > Just googling the ticker shows it at 149, which is below its opening.

                        I thought it opened at 135.

                        • tim333 · 13 days ago

                          135 is what you could buy for in the public offering. The shares opened trading at 150.

                  • dminik · 14 days ago

                    > The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges.

                    Surely if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about. Or is this an admission that the insane valuation for these companies is currently just bullshit?

                    • JumpCrisscross · 14 days ago

                      > if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about

                      Not really. Plenty of solid companies have to wring their hands around IPO timing based on market conditions. Sometimes, this is due to valuation multiples. Sometimes it's due to fads, e.g. investors preferring capital-structure efficiency versus low leverage.

                      • dminik · 14 days ago

                        I mean, my comment wasn't necessarily meant to be some insightful analysis. But I do find it weird that OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week.

                        • JumpCrisscross · 14 days ago

                          > OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week

                          When was the last time someone seriously asked if OpenAI was going to go public before Anthropic? For me, it's been at least months, maybe closer to a year. The corporate-governance complexity drove half of that, momentum the other half, and messaging from both companies having been consistent with that timeline for months sealed the deal.

                  • koolala · 14 days ago

                    Maybe they want a Mythos level model first.

                    • wmf · 14 days ago

                      Good news: GPT-5.6 has been export restricted.

                      • koolala · 14 days ago

                        Where are the anecdotes about it hacking the NSA though?

                        • wmf · 14 days ago

                          It's not even out yet. Give it a second.

                          • koolala · 14 days ago

                            They need to do something new like create a more efficient battery formula out of recyclable abundant components. Hydrogen + Oxygen and Water are a good abundant recyclable example but also so is Gravity. Nightly / seasonal / long term energy storage needs another compact and efficient solution as elegant as these but better. (saying superconductors is cheating)

                        • tristanj · 14 days ago

                          This is patently false, don't spread rumors. Voluntarily delaying release at the request of the government is not the same as imposing export controls.

                          • 3eb7988a1663 · 14 days ago

                            I hesitate to call anything "voluntary" when a competitor company was declared a domestic supply chain risk for refusing to do everything the administration requested.

                            • itemize123 · 14 days ago

                              I would categorize the op as "technically false" but if they don't voluntarily delay, they would be export controlled.

                              • koolala · 14 days ago

                                Like being export controlled if you don't track everyone's identities is a form of imposing export restrictions. That is a true statement.

                              • iwontberude · 13 days ago

                                By saying it’s false you are also spreading a rumor that OpenAI is goated by us defense. The reality is we don’t know the truth. But since we are spouting off rumors: Government could have given them a national security letter that says, “send all of your prompts and response data to a mirror run by NSA”

                                • Taronar · 13 days ago

                                  What? the gov decides who does and who does not get it... i.e restricts who has access.

                                  • 7734128 · 13 days ago

                                    Why do you say "voluntary"?

                              • cmiles8 · 14 days ago

                                The window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there.

                                The best option at this point is kick the can down the road and hope market sentiment improves next year. Not much signal that it will, and quite a lot of signal the sentiment only declines, but pumping the brakes is the least worst option on the table.

                                • JumpCrisscross · 14 days ago

                                  > window has basically closed for them for the time being. The business math just isn’t there

                                  Unless Anthropic also cancels its IPO, this probably isn't it.

                                  • cmiles8 · 14 days ago

                                    The math doesn’t help Anthropic either but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked. That makes a huge difference when pitching an IPO.

                                    • wiiww · 14 days ago

                                      Agree but Anthropic momentum is fading too.

                                      Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.

                                      • reilly3000 · 14 days ago

                                        How is momentum fading when their headline product is so good it’s illegal?

                                        • nemomarx · 14 days ago

                                          is no longer being able to sell it to half of your market good, financially?

                                          • andy99 · 14 days ago

                                            I think they may have overplayed their hand so to speak. The end consequence is that their best model isn’t available right now, people are exploring alternatives, and realizing they work fine.

                                            It’s such a fast paced and competitive industry, anyone who takes even a short break is going to have a hard time coming back from it, and that’s basically what they’ve done.

                                            • derwiki · 14 days ago

                                              Thankfully, many tech companies have shortened parental leave to 6 weeks!

                                            • surgical_fire · 14 days ago

                                              That is a good marketing headline, but for it to work the model has to become available again in a reasonable timeframe.

                                              Otherwise people try other cheaper models, and they find out those models work perfectly for what they need.

                                              • wiiww · 14 days ago

                                                Expected cash flows, growth and risk.

                                                Go ahead and incorporate that in those 3 variables... lets see what you know before I bother replying.

                                                • jazzyjackson · 14 days ago

                                                  How do you grow your business when your flagship product is illegal?

                                                  • itemize123 · 14 days ago

                                                    easy - lobbying

                                                    • dgellow · 14 days ago

                                                      Hasn’t worked for them so far

                                                      • throw1234567891 · 13 days ago

                                                        They don’t pay enough

                                                • rgrPlantner · 14 days ago

                                                  Yeh local models will continue to gain performance before they can IPO

                                                  I only use free Gemini Pro to plan then scrape the log in Google Drive into local Qwen/Gemma+pi set up

                                                  I can plan and architect with Gemini on my phone or wherever and a cron job + custom JSON parser at home updates context in local model setup

                                                  • lelanthran · 13 days ago

                                                    > Open source is starting to slowly become a source of frustration for frontier labs In the discussion around value for money.

                                                    Ironic, considering that they got their ball rolling by taking from Open Source with neither credit nor attribution.

                                                  • JumpCrisscross · 14 days ago

                                                    > but the market views these two companies very differently at the moment. Anthropic is seen as having momentum. Open AI is seen as having likely peaked

                                                    What are you basing this on? Both are currently doing rounds/tenders that are placing without problems.

                                                    The media treats these two differently, as do financial influencers. But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.

                                                    • stymaar · 14 days ago

                                                      > But I'd be careful about conflating either of them with the market.

                                                      The finance market and the market for these products are two different things. Anthropic has definitely been stealing market share to OpenAI in the past few month on many segments (be it enterprise or even consumers).

                                                      • itemize123 · 14 days ago

                                                        it's not just media. or rather media is reporting based on fund interests.

                                                        • JumpCrisscross · 14 days ago

                                                          > media is reporting based on fund interests

                                                          Can you give an example that shows funds actually souring on OpenAI? (Like, not less enthusiastic than before. Actually souring. Selling.)

                                                      • treis · 14 days ago

                                                        ChatGPT is the 5th most visited website in the world and gets a ridiculous amount of user data. They're going to be an advertising powerhouse.

                                                        • cmiles8 · 14 days ago

                                                          The advertising angle is significantly overrated. Theres only so many ad dollars to go around and so every dollar they make they have to take from so other player like Google. With Google having decent AI search now for free OpenAI is already well behind here.

                                                          • arealaccount · 13 days ago

                                                            Users coming from Chat or Claude or the likes would be very high intent if done correctly, advertisers would pay a lot of money. I'm certain people would pull budget from Google.

                                                            • cmiles8 · 13 days ago

                                                              But Google has chat too now plus a ton more data about users OpenAI doesn’t have. There really isn’t anything OpenAI can do that Google isn’t also already doing.

                                                            • mdjxnxnxnd · 13 days ago

                                                              Honestly if ads start getting put into chats that service is dead to me

                                                            • rgrPlantner · 14 days ago

                                                              Useless stat without breakdown of time spent at the site and bot activity.

                                                              It will draw a non-zero number just curious people who never use ChatGPT.

                                                              And bots are exfiltrating model knowledge for the benefit of competition.

                                                              • rchaud · 14 days ago

                                                                There are only so many ad dollars to go around. ChatGPT getting traffic doesn't mean they can convince ad buyers that their dollar goes further than at established players like Google and Meta. AI search is a commodity at this point, even DuckDuckGo has it.

                                                                Reddit has been one of the world's top websites for over a decade, yet they are totally irrelevant in terms of ad product market share.

                                                                • ipaddr · 14 days ago

                                                                  Because reddit users are low quality users. Meta and Google can peak into your data and segment you to sell.

                                                                  ChatGPT ads are low quality placed at the bottom barely noticed.

                                                                  ChatGPT ads will get better. Meta's social userbase is drying up. Google keeps introducing and removing things from chrome to keep access to spy on you for them alone. We'll see how things pan out but in ten more years reddit ads will still be worthless.

                                                                  • treis · 13 days ago

                                                                    I think a lot of money and effort is spent on advertising on reddit. It just goes to astroturfing instead of paying Reddit.

                                                                • lelanthran · 13 days ago

                                                                  > Anthropic is seen as having momentum.

                                                                  How can you tell that? "The Market" at the moment is the private investor market and, to my (admittedly untrained) eye, those two companies are being treated exactly the same when they raise.

                                                              • arppacket · 14 days ago

                                                                I doubt that anyone at OpenAI would let their payday decrease. If anything, they got assurances that everyone would keep the bubble going until 2028 no matter what.

                                                                • bellowsgulch · 13 days ago

                                                                  > The business math just isn’t there.

                                                                  What do you mean? I promise I'm not being facetious or satirical. I'm just too simple and conservative of an investor to understand this comment. (for example: Is the price-to-earnings ratio too high? I probably wouldn't want to invest in the business.)

                                                                  • lennessy · 13 days ago

                                                                    They are losing too much money. With open source options that are always close to frontier performance it will always be hard for them reduce training costs and charge premium rates.

                                                                    • bellowsgulch · 13 days ago

                                                                      I guess my point is that IPO timing is irrelevant if they don’t have an actual profitable business.

                                                                  • sschueller · 13 days ago

                                                                    There may never be another window. They will run out of money especially if open models catch up.

                                                                    • pier25 · 13 days ago

                                                                      They should have done it a year or two ago when the hype was strong.

                                                                      Today everyone knows there's no agi coming up and it will be a very long time until they generate any profits, if ever.

                                                                    • sharadov · 14 days ago

                                                                      I was really hoping that they Ipoed this year, so we can see their stock shoot up and down in flames, and we're really done with them and Sam Altman, once and for all.

                                                                      • fragmede · 14 days ago

                                                                        While spcx has room to go up or down from where it is today, the reality is it that didn't drop like a rock on IPO day, so wall street bets vibes-based online "analysis" investing is only good for paper money.

                                                                        • outside1234 · 14 days ago

                                                                          The investment bankers were in there manipulating, but that's over, and gravity is here.

                                                                          • derwiki · 14 days ago

                                                                            It is funny to mention “gravity” in reference to company that makes rockets that escape gravity

                                                                            • ambicapter · 13 days ago

                                                                              It might even elicit a mild chuckle when you realize nothing "escapes" gravity. You might be thinking of escape velocity?

                                                                              • derwiki · 13 days ago

                                                                                Yup, fair enough!

                                                                        • dgellow · 14 days ago

                                                                          After the IPO Altman will be even more insanely rich, and that time in a more liquid manner. I don’t think he will go away

                                                                          • michelb · 12 days ago

                                                                            Why would Sam go? He has the political power of this administration on his side. Far more than Elon, who is working hard to get it back through SpaceX military contracts. Anthropic has very little political sway, which is why they are in trouble now. OpenAI might wait to see if this government will destroy Anthropic’s chances in the USA. Then Sam could become the only player.

                                                                          • int32_64 · 14 days ago

                                                                            AI exits in America probably have a political cliff approaching fast as populist backlash will hit them, or perhaps they see political winds favorable to regulatory capture in the future and are waiting for that?

                                                                            • JumpCrisscross · 14 days ago

                                                                              > AI exits in America probably have a political cliff approaching fast as populist backlash will hit them

                                                                              The populist backlash is coming for datacenters. I'm unconvinced that's truly problematic to these companies given data travels close to the speed of light and plenty of countries have energy, data interconnects and governments unresponsive to locals' concerns.

                                                                              • kridsdale1 · 13 days ago

                                                                                This morning I heard a convincing argument that the data center backlash is only really significant in the USA because jobs here equal health care access. Europeans can afford to be less threatened existentially.

                                                                                • vrganj · 13 days ago

                                                                                  Its also about pollution and water and similar concerns

                                                                                  • cromka · 11 days ago

                                                                                    If heck the weather maps for the past free days in Europe, you'll see why they won't get any popular here, either.

                                                                                • strangattractor · 13 days ago

                                                                                  Data centers are the next Dark Fiber from 2000. After VCs and private Equity fund them there will not be sufficient demand because AI will inevitably not entirely live up to all the hype. The fire sale will eventually begin. Then Google, M$, Apple and Amazon will buy them at a discount just like Google snatched up the dark fiber after 2000.

                                                                                  • ezst · 12 days ago

                                                                                    Only worse: internet infrastructure (routers, fiber, ...) depreciates over multiple decades, not mere months. What's inside those data centers matters more than them being built: today's cutting edge inference chips or GPUs may not be so useful if either hardware or models evolve in the slightest, and in some way, we should hope for that if we want to be optimistic about the future of AI/LLMs.

                                                                                    • saati · 12 days ago

                                                                                      Fiber is good for a hundred years, nothing in a data center will last ten.

                                                                                  • sourcegrift · 14 days ago

                                                                                    It's over. Open models and chinese models will make fast progress and that nvidia+ms 128gb monster is what everyone will end up buying. sama can go back to running scams.

                                                                                    • outside1234 · 14 days ago

                                                                                      OpenAI is in deep trouble is what I am reading into this

                                                                                      • luisgvv · 13 days ago

                                                                                        Why?

                                                                                        • combilabs · 13 days ago

                                                                                          I actually see this as an indicator that they still feel they can comfortably raise in the private market. If they tried to rush an IPO into an indifferent public market it would look worse, in my opinion. I'm not saying they're in great shape--they may be in terrible shape for all I know. But I think rushing the IPO would send a worse message than holding off.

                                                                                        • albatross79 · 14 days ago

                                                                                          Bad idea, the AI hype train still has some gas, when it settles in that it's just another tool it's all going to fizzle out.

                                                                                          • therobots927 · 14 days ago

                                                                                            I can’t wait. It’s gonna be an absolute blast to watch.

                                                                                          • tempodox · 14 days ago

                                                                                            They just want to see Anthropic crash first and then be the last survivor.

                                                                                            • flowerthoughts · 14 days ago

                                                                                              If Anthropic tanks in the public markets, that will cause a revaluation of OpenAI in the private markets. If they delay IPO to try another private round, they also want to sign that round early.

                                                                                              Perhaps that's Anthropic's plan, is they believe OpenAI is weak. If the IPO is good they win. If it's bad OpenAI loses.

                                                                                                • fsuts · 13 days ago

                                                                                                  SpaceX moved first so it’s 3rd move advantage?

                                                                                                  • surajrmal · 12 days ago

                                                                                                    Arguably Google did with its stock issue.

                                                                                                • lelanthran · 13 days ago

                                                                                                  > They just want to see Anthropic crash first and then be the last survivor.

                                                                                                  I don't think so. There's only two real options here:

                                                                                                  1. There's no bubble to pop

                                                                                                  2. There's a bubble to pop

                                                                                                  In the first case, the first AI company to IPO gets a ton of money from the market who wants to get in on this, and the second to IPO finds that there's not enough capital left in the public markets and has to sell for less than they'd wanted to.

                                                                                                  In the second case, the fir5st to IPO gets money from their shares, which drop in value (bubble popping), adn the second to IPO gets absolutely nothing (bubble popped).

                                                                                                  In both cases, the first to IPO gets the rewards, the second gets either less or nothing.

                                                                                                  • jerojero · 13 days ago

                                                                                                    The first ai IPO is spaceX.

                                                                                                    Its already not anthropic or openAI.

                                                                                                    But there might still be some water in the well for the second one, there definitely won't be for the third one.

                                                                                                • draginol · 13 days ago

                                                                                                  With all the uncertainty about AI regulation, I don't think now is the time.

                                                                                                  How do you even value a company when we don't even know if GPT-6 will be made available to the general public?

                                                                                                  • hnarn · 13 days ago

                                                                                                    I’m not so sure the uncertainty around _regulation_ is the concern here.

                                                                                                    • MichaelDickens · 13 days ago

                                                                                                      OpenAI and Anthropic valuations are based on the premise that they may develop AGI in the near future. How do you value a company based on that premise? Throwing regulations into the mix doesn't make the problem much harder than it already is.

                                                                                                    • fsuts · 13 days ago

                                                                                                      “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” as the saying goes.

                                                                                                      Maybe they will show major Ad revenue and Codex sales and get a higher price next year but it’s a risk.

                                                                                                      • Havoc · 13 days ago

                                                                                                        They realised their numbers are much worse than anthropics

                                                                                                        • therobots927 · 13 days ago

                                                                                                          You know anthropics numbers? They still haven’t filed either.

                                                                                                          • Havoc · 13 days ago

                                                                                                            They said they’re profitable on operating profit.

                                                                                                            Think it’s pretty safe to assume theirs are less of a dumpster fire

                                                                                                            • therobots927 · 12 days ago

                                                                                                              Well that’s great to hear that they are saying a non-GAAP profit metric is greater than zero.

                                                                                                              I agree it’s less of a dumpster fire than OAI but that’s not a very hard bar to clear.

                                                                                                              • Havoc · 12 days ago

                                                                                                                Trillion dollar dumpster fires are currently in fashion GAAP or not

                                                                                                                • therobots927 · 11 days ago

                                                                                                                  Currently in fashion isn’t exactly a confidence booster heading into multiple rate hikes and a pressure on hyperscalers to cut capex.

                                                                                                        • light_triad · 13 days ago

                                                                                                          Part of the issue is the respective positioning:

                                                                                                          - OpenAI wants to be the consumer version of AI, modeled after Google and Meta, with a mostly free universal service powered by ads and e-commerce. They haven't fully shown that model can work. The big problem is the lack of zero marginal costs as each new user requires GPU spend.

                                                                                                          - Anthropic positions itself more as enterprise AI, modeled after Microsoft ironically enough, and charges big companies for services. The economics of coding agents work but GPUs get expensive fast and open models are getting good enough for most use cases.

                                                                                                          So it's a race between ads and e-commerce offsetting AI spend and open source eating almost everyone's lunch.

                                                                                                          • aurareturn · 13 days ago

                                                                                                            Even open source models need hardware and energy to inference. Therefore, anyone offering a free ChatGPT competitor will be using the same unit economics.

                                                                                                            My bet is that OpenAI will make free ChatGPT work through ads.

                                                                                                            • pastamania · 12 days ago

                                                                                                              It's a very open question whether the economics for ads work though. Ads aren't just an infinite money pit you can just reach into, they have a price ceiling you have to stay under before they stop making sense for the advertiser. And if some of the rumours about OpenAI's ad CPMs are true, the inventory is going to be massively expensive.

                                                                                                              It makes sense for it to be expensive, mind. The unit cost of serving an LLM response is so much higher than the unit cost of serving a bunch of Instagram posts, or traditional search results or whatever.

                                                                                                              But price too highly, most advertisers won't be able to justify them. Why spend $60 for what you can buy from Meta for $6? It's a brave media buyer who runs with that as a long term strategy. But if you don't price highly, you're just offsetting some of the losses. The whole reason Google, Meta et all's ad networks exploded what because they cost less to get reach than traditional media did before, which opened them up to a bazillion small businesses who otherwise didn't have the capital to get off the ground through traditional media. ChatGPT's will cost more than what's available now. Massively more. There's not a lot of history of that working out!

                                                                                                              They'll get some buyers for a little while, the $60 vs $6 equation balances out if the ads are 10x more effective, and companies will throw a bit of money into campaigns to get a feel for how well they perform.

                                                                                                              (Google is in a different position, they make basically near infinite margin on other ad types and can lump budgets in together to get still-attractive blended CPMs. It's a hit, but it's worth taking to protect their wider network, just like they did for years when Youtube wasn't remotely profitable.)

                                                                                                              • TheOtherHobbes · 12 days ago

                                                                                                                OpenAI's Codex could vibecode ads directly into production code.

                                                                                                                In 2026 this is satire. By 2030 it might not be.