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  • csbrooks · 24 days ago

    > commits were on pace to hit 14 billion in 2026, up from 1 billion in 2025

    So AI means 14x the checkins? That's not 14x features completed, but still... wow.

    • nomel · 24 days ago

      Seems very reasonable, from my use. I commit much more often, as checkpoints, with branch rules that prevent force pushes/deletions, so the agents can't delete anything. And, suspect MS is only counting commits, and not the eventual squashes to one commit.

      • larusso · 24 days ago

        And every checking runs a whole CI run?

        We had it internally with our teams that open a PR to then push like 10-20 more commits but never actually interested in the client builds etc. turned out they opened the PR as a checkmark/ way to share the current state. We set cooldowns and auto cancel for the ci. And then there is the developer who uses the CI compute to run tests instead of running them locally for various reasons. We had to remind that compute isn’t for free.

        • nomel · 24 days ago

          Nope. You can configure CI to not run for every commit of every branch (seems insane to have full CI for every commit, unless you don't allow your devs to push until done with something, which also seems insane).

      • N_Lens · 24 days ago

        AI has 100x'd our productive capacity such that we're moving at unforeseen speeds at digging holes and refilling them!

        • shimman · 24 days ago

          This is too generous, they aren't even filling in the holes.

          • californical · 24 days ago

            It’s filling in a lot of the holes, but it’s putting a very convincing paper cover over the ones it misses. So it’s very hard to find the ones it didn’t fill, better hope your most valuable customers don’t walk over the paper ones!

        • BobbyTables2 · 24 days ago

          Is that even a lot?

          Spread over a year, roughly estimating a generous 4 kbytes of data per commit, comes out to a throughput of a little under 2 MB/s.

          Of course, it isn’t spread out uniformly and there is also a lot of hashing and other things going on.

          Maybe pulls and clones drive more I/O ?

          • 3eb7988a1663 · 24 days ago

            I suspect there is a cacophony of work that happens when a commit hits the server. That request needs to get replicated, git repositories need to be repacked, pull requests need to calculate diffs, CI jobs need to execute, on and on.

            That's also just assuming the good-faith usage. There are probably plenty of adversarial and poorly behaved scrapers that are putting additional load on the system.

            • jamesfinlayson · 24 days ago

              Recalculate percentage of each language in the repo, recalculate top contributors, recalculate the stats for the committer's profile etc etc.

              • BobbyTables2 · 23 days ago

                Scalable algorithms and data structures have existed for decades.

                Even if they had 10 billion users with 10 billion repositories it shouldn’t be a big deal on a home PC.

          • 3eb7988a1663 · 24 days ago

            I am surprised it is that low. The Bun Zig-to-Rust AI port was 6755 commits in like two weeks. If you make 10 commits per working day, that is 2500/year.

            While that is (hopefully) the upper end of the distribution, several companies have loudly encouraged engineers to light tokens on fire to the AI gods, so it only takes a handful of the devout to push up the average in gas town like ventures.

            • Aperocky · 24 days ago

              That commit count alone should not become any problem for infrastructure, even for Azure. They probably developed some ungodly mess with actions that did not/could not translate very well on Azure infrastructure.

              • kcartlidge · 23 days ago

                With agentic stuff there's also a large amount of commits which are not code.

                For instance with OpenClaw and similar, they often simulate institutional and short term memory with markdown files in folders. Other tooling that runs companies using agents as staff, for example, do the same - but also with files for inputs, outcomes, handovers etc.

                All of this means a lot of extra churn as these kinds of files can be changing with every interaction not just every traditional commit point.

              • ashishb · 24 days ago

                I wonder what percentage of pull requests are cascading updates caused by dependabot and multiple code review bots reviewing those PRs.

                My belief is it is likely 1% or more. And likely coming in as an avalanche.

                • jf · 24 days ago

                  I helped set up the first meeting between a Microsoft executive and Thomas Preston-Werner.

                  One of the moments that stood out to me was when Robert Youngjohns (the exec) asked Tom what it would take to have GitHub move to Azure. I was surprised that Tom had a response ready, saying that IOPS were really important and that virtual disks weren’t fast enough.

                  • jiggawatts · 24 days ago

                    Wait, are you trying to tell me that 1/100th the speed at 50x the price isn’t a great offer for Microsoft’s customers!?

                    Heathen lies!

                    Oh, wait… we have to use it? Oh, that’s terrible…

                    • winrid · 24 days ago

                      I had a feeling this was all related to someone trying to run a database on networked disks.

                      every fucking time

                    • not_kurt_godel · 24 days ago

                      Saving this for the next time someone trots out the "All cloud providers are the same" line

                      • dr_kretyn · 24 days ago

                        If they pull out "Embrace. Extend. Extinguish." on AWS then I'm going to be impressed beyond mad.

                        • solumunus · 24 days ago

                          How is this relevant or possible here.

                          • Aperocky · 24 days ago

                            That only work on smaller business/organization.

                          • citizenpaul · 24 days ago

                            My favorite part of this is that MS is just bending over to take it lest the gods scorn their "free" training data temple.

                            • locusofself · 24 days ago

                              I have to imagine this is very temporary.

                              • pjmlp · 24 days ago

                                So this is an Hotmail moment?

                                • UnlockedSecrets · 24 days ago

                                  Is this in reference to something that should be linked for those not alive or in the know at the time?

                                  • kqgnkqgn · 24 days ago

                                    I'm not sure if it was entirely true, but there are stories that after Microsoft bought Hotmail in the mid-90's, they quickly attempted to move them from FreeBSD (?) to Windows NT. But it failed miserably, and they went back to the original stack for another ~decade.

                                    • jeffrallen · 24 days ago

                                      Yes. This happened.

                                      • enigmo · 24 days ago

                                        the FreeBSD migration didn’t take that long - iirc this was the frontend migration to an IIS ISAPI.

                                        the Solaris bits (storage and routing tables) took far longer - and again iirc the frontend had been rewritten in C# before all the Sun hardware had been decommissioned.

                                        • kqgnkqgn · 23 days ago

                                          Ah sounds like you actually might have been there. I'm sure you must have some interesting stories from that time

                                          • enigmo · 23 days ago

                                            not in the Hotmail dev team but about as close as you could get otherwise. I even reported to their general manager for a minute or two.

                                            fun times for sure.

                                    • fortran77 · 24 days ago

                                      Still, it’s mostly text. You’d think it wouldn’t be that much of an issue.

                                      • andyst · 24 days ago

                                        and programming is just typing!

                                        • stonogo · 24 days ago

                                          and now it's not even that!

                                      • rickette · 24 days ago

                                        Easy to criticize this, but I rather see GitHub survive than fail under its own success. So thanks for acting on this MS!

                                        • theojulienne · 24 days ago

                                          They were originally on their own datacenters + huge amounts of burst and ancillary stuff in AWS, the internal push to move away from "the competitor's cloud" after the acquisition was huge and entirely stupid. I'm ex-GitHub and was one of the annoying people constantly saying GitHub should only move where it was provably the best option for GitHub - the third best major cloud provider is likely never it on merits alone.

                                          If this story is true, it's good that they finally realised that GitHub's performance and availability mattered more than using Microsoft's products. It would mean someone finally came to their senses rather than forcing a wholesale push to Azure - but I bet they still want to have it both ways even if they concede some AWS now.

                                          • jeffrallen · 24 days ago

                                            In the early 2000's they did the same dumb thing to WebTV: forced a move from Solaris to Windows, that completely wrecked the engineering team's velocity and motivation.

                                            • collabs · 24 days ago

                                              They did the same thing to Hotmail as well. It was fine running on FreeBSD/Solaris. Microsoft didn't need to switch to windows for no good reason.

                                            • rickette · 21 days ago

                                              Thanks for the insight, changes my perspective.

                                          • inopinatus · 24 days ago

                                            If there’s one thing that surprised me at AWS during my time there - over a decade ago now - that I was not clearly expecting in advance, it was the scale and competence of the units fulfilling the colossal and unceasing growth in capacity demand.

                                            This led me to reconsider Amazon as a whole, and I still think of it basically as a logistics firm, with the shop and the public cloud merely a monetisation thereof.

                                            • TurdF3rguson · 24 days ago

                                              I wonder how that translates to Blue Origin and how they managed to be so completely outclassed by SpaceX.

                                              • anonymousiam · 24 days ago

                                                SpaceX had been doing their thing for a while before Blue Origin got started. It seems to me that Bezos never wanted to try to catch up with Musk. His approach is not "move fast and break things", but instead more old-school (try to get things done right as best you can, and only test when necessary). Despite the gap, Bezos is slowly gaining ground. He's flying passengers and he's winning government contracts. The USG likes to have a second source for everything, and they're fed up with Northrop, Boeing, Lockheed, ULA (who have all absorbed some of the other space and launch startups). So Bezos is capitalizing on the US government's desire to have real competition, and a second source for launch (besides ULA).

                                                There's also this funny outcome from the SpaceX IPO: https://x.com/ICannot_Enough/status/2065449141946253390

                                                • hvb2 · 24 days ago

                                                  > Despite the gap, Bezos is slowly gaining ground. He's flying passengers and he's winning government contracts.

                                                  He's flying passengers? They stopped new shepherd and that was suborbital to begin with. You can't compare the 2 at all. Getting people to orbit is much much harder than 'a hop'.

                                                  On the government contracts, yes they did get some. Some through lawyers though and they still have to show that they can actually deliver. SpaceX has to deliver on HLS as well, but the ISS has one American ride up and that's crew dragon.

                                            • JumpCrisscross · 24 days ago

                                              Interesting to see Anthropic go with xAI and Microsoft go with Amazon.

                                              (Probably just tea leaves. If you wanted to be extra spicy, you’d note that Jassy just threw Fable under the bus.)

                                              • CSMastermind · 24 days ago

                                                Doesn't most of Anthropics revenue come from AWS still?

                                                • shrubble · 24 days ago

                                                  AWS gets a lot of money from both the unclassified government work they do plus the more secretive work. If they were required to disclose as part of that, they would disclose - why put all those contracts at risk?

                                                  • VirusNewbie · 23 days ago

                                                    >Interesting to see Anthropic go with xAI and Microsoft go with Amazon.

                                                    Anthropic has been very strategic about playing all the big cloud providers off each other. They're also in desperate need of inference, and I don't think AWS has the capacity to scale up as fast as they want. AWS may also be trying to 'force' them to use Graviton, and I don't think Anthropic is as big of a fan.

                                                  • kuschku · 24 days ago

                                                    What kind of vibecoded website is this?

                                                    - the worst infinite scroll I've ever seen making it impossible to access the footer

                                                    - the title tag doesn't seem to work properly (just shows the URL in the tab title, on Chrome and Firefox)

                                                    - 2007-style keyword stuffing in meta keywords

                                                    - the entire page is client-side react with a completely empty body?

                                                    The agency that built it even proudly states on their website that they vibecode everything: https://gradientnoise.com/

                                                    EDIT: Turns out, the articles are mostly AI-generated as well? https://blog.ryanmerket.com/how-i-built-runtimewire-a-one-pe...

                                                    > And this is the gate that lets me sleep: a story only auto-publishes if the editor says PASS, the risk score is comfortably low, a hero image exists, and it has at least one source

                                                    • mujib77 · 24 days ago

                                                      works fine on the phone

                                                      • kuschku · 24 days ago

                                                        I can't confirm that.

                                                        Mobile Chrome can't show a tab title either https://i.k8r.eu/3vVCTQ.png

                                                        And the infinite scroll causes the page to constantly jump back up, again preventing me from accessing the footer

                                                        And of course with JS disabled you get nothing at all (which affects RSS readers, kindle devices, etc)

                                                        • mujib77 · 24 days ago

                                                          Now i see the problem yeah same on my device to

                                                          • ryanmerket · 24 days ago

                                                            rss is fine /rss

                                                            infinite scroll fixed, nojs issues fixed, and title fixed. thanks for helping QA.

                                                            • kuschku · 24 days ago

                                                              Typically, you'd want to be able to fetch the full article with your RSS reader, which obviously doesn't work with client side rendering.

                                                        • plaguuuuuu · 24 days ago

                                                          I've read more than a handful of AI-generated articles on HN recently. The last one even had a fake author with a fake face. despite the site insisting it had human editors and reviews. The web property was created by a marketing/AI agency from (AFAIK) a European country with zero employees credentialed to edit hard science news articles, also zero employees with English names and faces like the supposed author.

                                                          The interslop is real. Simulacra and simulation.

                                                          • ffsm8 · 24 days ago

                                                            The dead Internet theory is long established at this point

                                                          • patates · 24 days ago

                                                            > the worst infinite scroll I've ever seen making it impossible to access the footer

                                                            Let's be fair, it's possible to reach the footer! You keep pressing the end key for like a minute or two and 665 requests (with embedded base64 encoded images and all) later, you have your footer.

                                                            So saying it's possible to reach the footer would be technically correct - the best kind of correct!

                                                            • Walf · 24 days ago

                                                              But the hero image is an AI homage to cute paper-craft, to remind us that people cannot or will not put in that level of effort any more, so it's okay!

                                                              • albert_e · 24 days ago

                                                                I "love" infinite scroll on websites where important links like finding a way to contact customer support for help is only in the footer that you can never reach.

                                                                • ryanmerket · 24 days ago

                                                                  No agency. Just a one man shop. What kind of vibecoded website is this? It's a Replit built site along wtih my 20 years of experience building websites from scratch. It was launched this month, so it's a bit rough around the edges, but we're off to a great start.

                                                                  • jordemort · 23 days ago

                                                                    yeah, pointless AI-generated header image --> close tab

                                                                  • amazingman · 24 days ago

                                                                    Nature abhors a monoculture.

                                                                    • alibarber · 24 days ago

                                                                      I was recently looking at a Python project to learn a bit about RTC and just generally hack around and try something out.

                                                                      https://github.com/aiortc/aiortc

                                                                      It was fun and I found the code nice and helpful.

                                                                      I clicked on the PRs to see if there was anything interesting to look at. I started reading one when I just realised I was just reading someone’s Claude talking to GitHub Copilot. That was when I decided that the Dead Internet Theory had already happened.

                                                                      • N_Lens · 24 days ago

                                                                        After a decade and hundreds of billions in spend, Microsoft has finally upgraded from Azure to AWS.

                                                                        • sreekanth850 · 24 days ago

                                                                          Soon we can see limits on free github account. I guess that is clean way to end this AI slop fiasco.

                                                                          • aykutseker · 24 days ago

                                                                            GitHub used to get code after someone had thought about it.

                                                                            Agents are starting to use it while they think.

                                                                            • daft_pink · 24 days ago

                                                                              They should have made it work with hono workers so they could scale to infinity with free edge deployment on cloudflare - Senior JS Developer (Kai Lentit)

                                                                              • fuckinpuppers · 23 days ago

                                                                                Azure is hot garbage