lovehashbrowns · 4 years ago
There is literally no conceivable way Ukraine was ever going to remain independent as long as Putin is in control of Russia.
Everything you talked about has already been done--Ukraine gained independence and, after years of Ukraine-NATO relations, began actively seeking membership in the alliance and with the EU. For example, in 2002:
> "Ukraine's total integration into NATO is dictated by the reality of European and world politics, particularly after the tragic events of Sept. 11 in the United States," Kuchma said in a statement.
> "We are aware that joining NATO will be a long process and we will do everything possible," he added.
https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2002/07/09/Ukraine-reiterat...
Followed by a formal attempt in 2008:
> Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and Parliamentary Chairman Arseniy Yatsenyuk have signed the statement calling for consideration on Ukraine`s entry into the NATO membership action plan at the Bucharest summit" ...
https://www.unian.info/world/89447-ukraine-asks-to-join-nato...
Then we get the events of 2014 in Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity where Yanukovych is kicked out because of his refusal to sign a trade agreement with the EU.
There are more than 2 decades of history pointing to Ukraine's willingness to join Europe and NATO. And this is all backed by the people, both by the election of their leaders and by force.
So literally all of this fully agrees with the entirety of your "solution." How have we ended up here?
For one, Ukraine has natural gas and oil reserves--and if Ukraine can sell that to Europe, then Europe can rely on Russia just a little bit less. This was a big part of Russia taking Crimea and eastern Ukraine. But unfortunately for Ukraine, there are reserves on the western part of Ukraine, too. If Putin wants /all/ of the reserves, the entirety of Ukraine has to go.
Secondly, Ukraine is vital in a defense of Russia from a European attack. Putin consistently brings up Cuba in his reasoning for considering Ukraine's entry into NATO an act of war.
And lastly, but perhaps most significantly, is Putin's view of the relationship between Ukraine and Russia.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...
Basically, Ukraine was a point of pride for the USSR. It was host to a significant portion of the USSR's nuclear armaments, it was an important part of the economy, had a lot of natural resources, etc. (Of course, this is all a rose-colored view of the USSR from Putin's perspective.)
And then the USSR collapsed and all of these different Soviet states gained independence--including Ukraine. Although Ukraine and Russia continued to share their culture, and their people continued to go back and forth over the two countries' borders, Ukraine was slowly betraying literally everything that the USSR stood for (according to Putin).
Putin doesn't see any of this as being driven by the people of Ukraine--he thinks this is all the West interfering in Ukraine's politics. He specifically says this in all of his writings and speeches; Ukraine was POISONED by the West to "betray" its Russian heritage (USSR).
Do you really think Putin would accept this: "A way to remove any pre-text for wars like these is to allow secession by the UN, and to specifically allow regions (regardless of any existing drawn-up province/state borders) to split out in a democratic poll"
When 1. that has LITERALLY already happened, and 2. Any result of such a poll would be considered the West poisoning the pride and joy of the USSR, Ukraine?
Read Putin's writings and listen to his speeches. Take the words literally and read between the lines. You'll realize that independence for Ukraine was /never/ an option so long as Putin (or his ideology) is in charge of Russia. Ukraine joining NATO was ALWAYS going to be a declaration of war. This same concept applies to Georgia.
In an okay world, both Ukraine and Georgia are what Belarus is today in its relations to Russia. "Independent" and "sovereign" in name only. In an ideal world, the USSR stands as a superpower.
------ Edits ------
This decent YouTube video describes the relationship between the two countries as "Putin is just like [Ukraine's bitter] ex." https://youtu.be/LJNtfyq3TDE [The REAL Reason Putin is Invading Ukraine] by Johnny Harris
This other YouTube video is great as well: https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE [Why Russia is Invading Ukraine] by RealLifeLore.